Mini Sized Wheat (Globex)
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Daily Commodity Futures Price Chart: July 2018

Mini Sized Wheat (Globex) (CBOT)

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Contract Specifications:XW,CBOT
Trading Unit: 1,000 bushels
Tick Size: 1/8 cent/bushel ($1.25 per contract)
Quoted Units: US $ per bushel
Initial Margin: $540   Maint Margin: $400
Contract Months: Mar, May, Jul, Sep, Dec
Last Trading Day: The business day prior to the 15th calendar day of the contract month.
Trading in expiring contracts closes at noon on the last trading day.
Trading Hours: Electronic session hours are 6:00pm - 6:00am and 9:30am - 1:45pm Chicago time, Sun-Fri
Trading in expiring contracts closes at noon on the last trading day.
Cash Price: Cents/bushel
Daily Limit: Thirty cents ($0.30) per bushel or ($300 per contract) above or below the previous day's settlement price.

Analysis

Wed 4/25/18

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an overbought market. An overbought reading occurs when the close is nearer to the top band than the bottom band.

Additional Analysis: The market appears overbought, but may continue to become more overbought before reversing. Look for some price weakness before taking any bearish positions based on this indicator.

Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:

Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average

Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Short Term: Even though based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bearish, we will not classify it as extremely bearish until the following occurs: the fast moving average slope is down from previous bar, the slow moving average slope is down from previous bar, price goes below the fast moving average, price goes below the slow moving average.

Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Long Term: Even though based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bearish, we will not classify it as extremely bearish until the following occurs: the fast moving average slope is down from previous bar, the slow moving average slope is down from previous bar, price goes below the fast moving average, price goes below the slow moving average.

Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Price is above the moving average so the trend is up.

Additional Analysis: CAUTION: The market trend has changed direction. Now the trend is UP!

Stochastic - Fast Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is bullish because the SlowK line is above SlowD line.

Additional Analysis: CAUTION: The long term trend has changed direction. Now the long term trend is UP! The short term trend is UP. SlowK was up this bar for the second bar in a row. We may have seen the bottom of the down move for a while. The short term trend is UP. Even though the stochastic is signaling that the market is overbought, don't be fooled looking for a top here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking tops in a Bear Market (in which we are not). Exit long position only if some other indicator tells you to.

Stochastic - Slow Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The SlowK line crossed above the SlowD line; this indicates a buy signal.

Additional Analysis: CAUTION: The long term trend has changed direction. Now the long term trend is UP! The short term trend is UP. SlowK was up this bar for the second bar in a row. We may have seen the bottom of the down move for a while. The market looks strong both long term and short term. The SlowK is at (54.52). A good upward move is possible without SlowK being overbought.

Swing Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The swing index is most often used to identify bars where the market is likely to change direction. A signal is generated when the swing index crosses zero. No signal has been generated here.

Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.

Volatility Indicator: The volatility trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, has just switched to up.

Volume Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: No indications for volume.

Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is UP. Volume is trending higher, allowing for a pick up in volatility.

RSI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 56.86). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.

Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat overbought (RSI is at 56.86). However, this by itself isn't a strong enough indication to signal a trade. Look for additional evidence before getting too bearish here.

ADX Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: ADX measures the strength of the prevailing trend. A rising ADX indicates a strong underlying trend while a falling ADX suggests a weakening trend which is subject to reversal. Currently the ADX is falling.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is up. However, ADX has turned down, indicating a deterioration in the current trend. Look for the market to get a bit choppy here. A decline from current levels is possible here.

Comm Channel Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: CCI (73.39) is in neutral territory. A signal is generated only when the CCI crosses above or below the neutral center region.

Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (73.39) has crossed above zero, issuing a signal to close short positions and initiate long positions.

DMI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: DMI signals a bullish trade when the DMI+ crosses above the DMI-, as it has here.

Additional Analysis: DMI has signaled a bullish trade. However, the ADX has weakened making this trade less attractive. Look for outside confirmation before taking a bullish position here, or wait for an upturn in ADX.

MACD Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: MACD has issued a bullish signal. A bullish signal is generated when the FastMA crosses above the SlowMA, as it has here.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. MACD has issued a bullish signal, since the FastMA has just crossed above the SlowMA. With the current trend to the upside, this suggests prices will continue to rise for a time.

Momentum Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (-5.25) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is indicating an oversold market. However the market may continue to become more oversold. Look for evidenced strength before interpreting any bullishness here.

Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average. While this is normal following delivery of nearer term contracts, be cautious. Decreasing open interest indicates lower liquidity.

Rate of change Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (-1.04) is below zero, indicating an oversold market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Rate of Change is indicating an oversold market. However the market may continue to become more oversold. Look for evidenced strength before interpreting any bullishness here.

Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.

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